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Fixed-Income Investment and Risk Management: A Roadmap to Becoming a Professional

hey there, Professional!


Here's what I've set out for you. Below is a step-by-step guide detailing what we'll tackle each week. In each module, each topic has been chosen to give you the skills and the insights you need. But remember, while this roadmap will guide you, your curiosity will drive you. So, ask questions, be hands-on, and embrace every victory moment.



 

Day 1: Setting the Foundation

It's about setting up your development environment. You'll familiarize yourself with Anaconda Navigator, which acts as a central tool for managing your data science tools, and Jupyter Notebook, a powerful interactive tool for coding, visualization, and presenting your Python projects. Additionally, we'll delve into the seamless integration with Excel, harnessing its analytical capabilities to augment our data handling and visualization. By the end of the day, you'll have your tools in place and be ready to start your journey.




Watch: Anaconda Navigator Application

Everything You Need To Get Started On Your Machine | Installation Process | Integrated Development Environment vs. Code Editor vs. Compiler Learnings | Python Libraries & Packages | Recommendations.


Watch: Jupyter Notebook

Open-Source Web-Based Interactive Computing Platform Launching Application | Default Directories | Creating a New Jupyter Notebook | Menu Options & Toolbar | Keyboard Shortcuts | Code Cell.


To download and install Microsoft Excel, head to Microsoft's official site. Please be aware that a valid license or subscription may be required to access and use Excel fully.


 

Week 1 to 3: Financial Markets And Fixed-Income Products

In this week, we dive deep into the world of finance. Financial markets are the bedrock of the global economy, and understanding their mechanics is crucial for anyone looking to make informed decisions, whether you're an investor, a business professional, or just a curious learner. We'll start by examining the different types of financial markets, from equity to forex, and understand their significance. But markets are just venues – what's traded in them? that's where financial products come in. Instruments like stocks, bonds, and derivatives that investors buy and sell.

By the end of this week, you'll have a foundational understanding of the landscape of financial markets and the products that drive them.



Watch: Introduction to Financial Markets

Understanding: Financial Markets - Capital Market - Primary | Secondary - Equity | Debt | Forex / Currency Market | Commodity Market | Derivatives Market - Exchange vs. Over-The-Counter Traded.


Watch: Introduction to Financial Products and Instruments – Equities

Understanding: Financial Products - Securities - Stocks | Debt | Loans | Deposits | Stock Market - Primary | Secondary - Order Book | Private Placement | Equities - Capital Appreciation | Dividend | Reinvestment (DRIP)


Watch: Building Block 1.0 - Python for Finance

Extract Historical & Intraday Time-Series Data - Stocks - Single | Multiple - Open | High | Low | Close | Adjusted Close | Volume | Data Visualization - Price Chart


Watch: Historical Time Series Data & Equity Shocks – Excel | Python

Absolute Returns/Shocks | Proportional/Relative Shocks - Discrete | ShockType Use | Comparison


Watch: Introduction to Financial Products and Instruments – FI Securities

Understanding: Financial Products - Debt Securities | Issuers - Government | Agencies | Municipals | Corporates | Treasury Securities - T-Bills | T-Notes | T-Bonds | TIPS | Interest Rate & Term-Structure of Interest Rates - Short-Term | Medium-Term | Long-Term

Read: Understanding Fixed-Income Treasury Securities


Watch: Historical Time Series Data & Interest Rate Shocks

Absolute Returns/Shocks | Proportional/Relative Shocks - Discrete | Continuous | Profile of Interest Rates – 10Y & 3M | Variability Profile | YC Profile – Current Rates & Shocks


Watch: US Treasury Rates & Yield Curve

Treasury Yield Curve - Normal | Inverted | Humped/Flat | Historical Time-Series of Interest Rates | 2007-08 & 2022-23 Interest Rate Profiles | Market Sentiments | FED 2024-25 Targets

Read: Normal, Inverted, and Humped Interest Rate Curve


Watch: US Treasury Yield Spread

Treasury Yield Spread - 10Y3M Spread | Yield Spread Table | Interpretation & Identification of Yield Curve Profile & Inversions


Watch: Market Report: Monitoring USD10Y3M Yield Spread

Treasury Yield Spread - USD10Y3M Spread | Historical Levels - Peak | Trough | Current | Preparing Market Report - Description | Financial Crisis | Economic Recessions | Advice - Long/Short Position

  • Investigating the dynamics of the US Treasury Yield Spread and its implications for economic conditions.


Watch: Market Report: Monitoring SnP500 Equity Index

Equity Market Index - SnP 500 Index | Performance Measures - Rolling Maximum Cumulative Loss | Maximum Drawdown | Preparing Market Report - Description | Financial Crisis | Economic Recessions | Chart

  • Analyzing the performance of the S&P 500 Equity Index, including measures such as cumulative loss and maximum drawdown.


Watch: S&P 500 Performance: Cumulative Loss & Maximum Drawdown

Performance Measures - Growth Index | Cumulative Losses | Maximum Drawdown | Period - 1990 to Present | Generate Consolidated Market Report

  • Preparing a comprehensive market report to monitor the interplay between yield spreads and equity performance, providing insights into market trends and potential investment strategies.


Project: Monthly Market Report: Monitoring Yield Spreads and S&P 500 Performance

Your objective is to prepare a market report, focusing on the dynamics of the US Treasury Yield Spread and S&P 500 Equity Index data from 1990 to the present.

  • Engage in a practical project focused on preparing a monthly market report, analyzing the dynamics of the US Treasury Yield Spread and S&P 500 Equity Index performance.

  • Utilize historical data and performance metrics to provide insights into market trends, economic conditions, and potential investment opportunities.

  • Generate consolidated market reports to communicate findings effectively and facilitate informed decision-making.


 

Week 4 and 6: Modeling Term-Structure of Interest Rates

Welcome to Week 4, where we venture into the fascinating domain of modeling the term-structure of interest rates. This week is dedicated to understanding the complexities of yield curve construction through various methods. We'll kick off by exploring Yield Curve Construction using Interpolation Methods such as linear, polynomial, and cubic spline. You'll gain insights into the construction process and the significance of day count conventions.


Next up, we'll delve into the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression Method for yield curve construction. This statistical approach involves understanding simple linear regression, model coefficients, and the unexplained component, allowing you to grasp the nuances of modeling the term-structure, tops with some advanced models: the Nelson Siegel (NS) and Nelson Siegel Svensson (NSS) models. These polynomial regression models provide a deeper understanding of the level, slope, and curvature components of the yield curve.



Watch: Yield Curve Construction – Interpolation Methods

Yield Curve Construction - Interpolation Methods - Linear | Polynomial | Higher-Order Polynomials - Quadratic | Cubic | Quartic | Day Count Convention - 30/360

  • Exploring Yield Curve Construction using Interpolation Methods: Linear, Polynomial, Higher-Order Polynomials (Quadratic, Cubic, Quartic)

  • Understanding Day Count Conventions - 30/360

  • Analyzing the Limitations of Interpolation Methods


Watch: Advanced Interpolation Methods – Vandermonde Matrix

Yield Curve Construction - Interpolation Methods - Vandermonde Matrix | System of Linear Equations | Determinant | Coefficients | Curve Fitting | Limitations

  • Understanding deep into Advanced Interpolation Methods: Vandermonde Matrix

  • Understanding System of Linear Equations, Determinants, and Coefficients

  • Exploring Curve Fitting Techniques and Limitations


Watch: Advanced Interpolation Methods – Newton Divided Difference

Yield Curve Construction - Interpolation Methods - Newton's Divided Difference | Newton (Divided Difference) - First/Second/Third-Order Derivatives | Coefficients | Curve Fitting | Limitations - Degree & Extrapolation

  • Understanding deep into Advanced Interpolation Methods: Newton's Divided Difference

  • Understanding Newton (Divided Difference) - First/Second/Third-Order Derivatives, Coefficients, Curve Fitting, and Limitations

  • Exploring Lagrange & Cubic Spline Interpolation - Coefficients, Curve Fitting, and Limitations


Watch: Advanced Interpolation Methods – Lagrange & Cubic Spline Interpolation

Yield Curve Construction - Interpolation Methods - Lagrange & Cubic Spline | Coefficients | Curve Fitting | Limitations


Watch: Modeling Yield Curve – Linear Regression Model (Single Factor)

Modeling Term-Structure of Interest Rates - Ordinary Least Squares Method - Simple Linear Regression | Dependent & Independent Variable | Model Coefficients - Slope & Intercept | Unexplained Component - Error Term/Sum of Squared Residuals | Model Predictions | Best Fit Line

  • Understanding Modeling Term-Structure of Interest Rates using Ordinary Least Squares Method

  • Exploring Simple Linear Regression and Dependent & Independent Variables

  • Analyzing Model Coefficients, Unexplained Components, and Model Predictions


Watch: Modeling Yield Curve – Polynomial Regression Model (Single Factor)

Modeling Term-Structure of Interest Rates - Ordinary Least Squares Method - Polynomial Regression | Quadratic Regression | Cubic Regression | Dependent & Independent Variable | Model Coefficients - Slope & Intercept | High-Order Coefficients - Curvature | Unexplained Component - Error Term/Sum of Squared Residuals | Model Predictions | Best Fit Curve

  • Understanding Modeling Term-Structure of Interest Rates using Ordinary Least Squares Method

  • Exploring Polynomial Regression and Dependent & Independent Variables

  • Analyzing Model Coefficients, Unexplained Components, and Model Predictions


Watch: Modeling Yield Curve – Nelson Siegel (NS) & Nelson Siegel Svensson (NSS) Models

Yield Curve Construction - Nelson Siegel & Nelson Siegel Svensson Model - Polynomial Regression | Model Coefficients - Level, Slope & Curvature | Unexplained Component - Error Term | Model Predictions | Best Fit Line

  • Understanding deep into Nelson Siegel & Nelson Siegel Svensson Models - Polynomial Regression, Model Coefficients (Level, Slope & Curvature), and Unexplained Component

  • Analyzing Model Predictions and Best Fit Line


Watch: Model Validation – Nelson Siegel (NS) & Nelson Siegel Svensson (NSS) Models

Model Parameters – Level (ß0) | Slope (ß1) | Curvature (ß2, ß3, ß4) | Scale (τ1, τ2) | Evaluation Metrics – Mean Absolute Error (MAE) | Mean Squared Error (MSE) | Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) | Median Absolute Error (MedAE) | Maximum Error (ME) | Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) | Residual Sum of Squares (RSS) | Total Sum of Squares (TSS) | Coefficient of Determination (R²)

  • Model Validation - Parameters, Evaluation Metrics, and Performance Analysis


Project: A Research Beyond Yield Curves: Best-Fit Model For Yield Curve Estimation

Actual vs. Predicted Interest Rates | Coefficient Table | Residuals | R-squared (Coefficient of Determination) | Model Performance

  • Participants will explore a range of modeling techniques, including interpolation methods, regression models, and advanced polynomial regression models such as the Nelson Siegel (NS) and Nelson Siegel Svensson (NSS) models. By comparing the performance of these models, participants aim to identify the best-fit model for yield curve estimation.

  • Participants will analyze the performance of each model by comparing actual vs. predicted interest rates. This involves assessing the accuracy of model predictions and identifying any discrepancies or outliers. Additionally, participants will examine model coefficients, residuals, and other performance metrics to evaluate the overall effectiveness of each model.

  • Based on the analysis of model performance metrics, participants will select the best-fit model for yield curve estimation. This involves considering factors such as prediction accuracy, robustness, and simplicity of the model.


Watch: Modeling Interest Rate Risk Factors – Principal Component Analysis (PCA)

Statistics – Variance | Covariance-Correlation Matrix | Normalization | Principal Component Identification – Level | Slope | Curvature | Eigen Decomposition – Values & Vectors | Dimensionality Reduction | PC Computation & Uncorrelated Shocks

  • Exploring Statistics - Variance, Covariance-Correlation Matrix, Normalization, and Standardization

  • Understanding Principal Component Identification (Level, Slope, Curvature), Eigen Decomposition, Dimensionality Reduction, and Uncorrelated Shocks


Watch: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) – The Reduced Model In Perspective

Reduced Model Process | Population | Sample Set Represents The Population | Population Change | The Inverse Problem | Steps To Generate Principal Components | General Data Transformation


Complete: Interview Guide Question(s)


 

Week 7 and 10: Pricing And Valuation of Fixed-Income Securities

Welcome to Weeks 9 and 10, You'll tackle the Pricing and Valuation of Fixed-Income Securities, focusing on US Treasury securities. You'll learn how to figure out the worth of fixed-income securities, starting with US Treasury Bills. We'll use a method called the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to crunch numbers such as discount rates and present values.


We'll move on to more to analyzing longer-dated Treasury securities and understanding how their value changes over time by mark-to-market securities and recording profit/loss. We'll also look at how to compare our calculated prices with the actual market prices and analyze the price difference due to model errors. Along the way, You'll do a practical project to sharpen analytical skills in valuing US Treasury Securities.



Watch: Full Valuation DCF Model – US Treasury Bills

Market Data - Discount Rates | Fixed-Income Product - 26W Treasury Bill | Discount Factor | Discounting Cashflow Equation | Model Price vs. Issue Price | Discount Basis Yield | Effective Yield | Money Market Yield | Bond Equivalent Yield | Effective Annualized Yield | Valuation Report

  • Exploring Market Data: Discount Rates

  • Understanding the 26W Treasury Bill as a Fixed-Income Product

  • Analyzing Discount Factor and Discounting Cashflow Equation

  • Comparing Model Price vs. Issue Price

  • Understanding Discount Basis Yield, Effective Yield, Money Market Yield, Bond Equivalent Yield, and Effective Annualized Yield

  • Evaluating Effective Annualized Yield and Generating Valuation Reports


Watch: Interest Rate Movement And Mark-to-Market PnL

Mark-to-Market Price And PnL | Constant Rate Simulation | Incremental PnL – Interest Rate Movement vs. Pull-to-Par Effect | Price-Yield Relationship | Analysis Report And Commentary

  • Understanding Mark-to-Market Price And PnL

  • Simulating Interest Rate Scenario with Constant Rate Simulation

  • Analyzing Incremental PnL: Interest Rate Movement and Pull-to-Par Effect

  • Exploring Price-Yield Relationship and Generating Analysis Reports with Commentary


Watch: Full Valuation DCF Model – US Treasury Notes/Bonds

Market Data - Interest Rates Term-Structure | Interest Rate Curve Construction | Fixed-Income Product - 10Y US Treasury Note | Discounting Cashflow Model | Discount Factors | Present Values | Model Price vs. Issue Price | Model Price Difference | Valuation Report

  • Utilizing Market Data: Interest Rates Term-Structure

  • Constructing Interest Rate Curve and Analyzing Fixed-Income Product: 10Y US Treasury Note

  • Applying Discounting Cashflow Model and Evaluating Discount Factors and Present Values

  • Comparing Model Price vs. Issue Price and Analyzing Model Price Difference

  • Generating Detailed Valuation Reports


Watch: Full Valuation DCF Model – US Treasury Notes/Bonds – Mark-to-Market

Mark-to-Market Price And PnL | Accrued Interest | US Treasury Interest Rate Curve Analysis – Valuation Date vs. Issue Date | Model Price Difference – Model Price vs. Market Price | Model Limitations | Valuation Report

  • Understanding Mark-to-Market Price And PnL for US Treasury Notes/Bonds

  • Evaluating Accrued Interest and Analyzing US Treasury Interest Rate Curve

  • Comparing Valuation Date vs. Issue Date and Model Price vs. Market Price

  • Addressing Model Limitations and Generating Detailed Valuation Reports


Project: Valuation Report of US Treasury Securities And Mark-to-Market

We're thrilled to introduce our fixed-income pricing and valuation project, the "Valuation Report of US Treasury Securities And MTM" – A unique opportunity for participants to deepen their understanding with respect to the pricing and valuation of fixed-income securities, impact of change in market risk factors on portfolio performance, and market commentaries.

  • Participants will apply theoretical concepts learned throughout the course to conduct comprehensive valuations of US Treasury Securities. This includes utilizing various valuation models and methodologies to determine the fair value of these securities.

  • Participants will analyze the impact of market risk factors on portfolio performance. By incorporating scenario analysis and sensitivity testing, participants will assess how changes in interest rates, yield curves, and other market variables affect the valuation of US Treasury Securities.

  • Participants will provide insightful market commentaries within the valuation report. This involves synthesizing valuation results with broader market trends, economic indicators, and geopolitical events to offer a holistic view of the fixed-income landscape.


Complete: Interview Guide Question(s)


 

Week 11 to 14: Fixed-Income Portfolio Risk Measurement And Management

Welcome to Weeks 11 to 14, where our focus shifts squarely to understanding scenario and sensitivity analysis, as well as risk measures for fixed-income portfolios. During this phase, we aim to equip ourselves with the knowledge needed to effectively navigate through historical and potential future market conditions.


Understanding deep into various market scenarios and their impact on fixed-income portfolios, we explore how interest rate fluctuations can affect portfolio performance and risk management strategies. through a combination of theoretical learning and hands-on projects, we'll develop a comprehensive understanding of how to analyze and mitigate risks in fixed-income portfolios.



Watch: Market Interest Rate Scenario – Parallel Shifts

Interest Rate Scenario Shock Definition – Parallel Shift Up, Parallel Shift Down | EOD vs. Scenario Present Value | Scenario PnL | Scenario Spot Ladder | Bond Price-Yield Relationship | Bond Convexity | Market Risk Scenario Report

  • Understanding Interest Rate Scenario Shocks: Parallel Shift Up, Parallel Shift Down

  • Exploring EOD vs. Scenario Present Value

  • Analyzing Scenario PnL and Scenario Spot Ladder

  • Understanding Bond Price-Yield Relationship and Bond Convexity

  • Generating Market Risk Scenario Reports


Watch: Market Interest Rate Scenario – Non-Parallel Shifts

Interest Rate Scenario Definition – Bull & Bear Steepening, Bull & Bear Flattening | Stress Test Scenario Definition – 2023 Exploratory Market Shock Component Scenario, 2022 Severely Adverse Scenario | EOD vs. Scenario Present Value | Scenario PnL | Market Risk Stress Test Report

  • Defining Interest Rate Scenarios: Bull & Bear Steepening, Bull & Bear Flattening

  • Stress Test Scenario Definitions: 2023 Exploratory Market Shock Component Scenario, 2022 Severely Adverse Scenario

  • Comparing EOD vs. Scenario Present Value

  • Examining Scenario PnL and Generating Market Risk Stress Test Reports


Watch: Sensitivity-Based Risk And PnL Attribution – Fixed-Income Securities

Partial Revaluation vs. Full Revaluation DCF Methodologies | Taylor-Series Approximation | Risk Sensitivities – Duration | DV01 | Convexity | Duration-Convexity PnL | Residual PnL | Methodology Difference – Full Valuation vs. Duration-Convexity PnL | Model Limitations | Market Risk Report

  • Differentiating Partial Revaluation vs. Full Revaluation DCF Methodologies

  • Understanding Taylor-Series Approximation

  • Analyzing Risk Sensitivities: Duration, DV01, Convexity

  • Exploring Duration-Convexity PnL and Residual PnL

  • Comparing Methodology Differences: Full Valuation vs. Duration-Convexity PnL

  • Addressing Model Limitations and Generating Market Risk Reports


Watch: Fixed-Income Portfolio Value-at-Risk – Historical Simulation Method

Value-at-Risk Measure – Confidence Level, Time Horizon, Lookback Period, Revaluation Methodology – Full Revaluation DCF Model | Historical Scenario Generation & Shock Computation | Scenario Revaluation & PnL | Absolute & Relative Value-at-Risk | Methodology Limitations | Market Value-at-Risk Report

  • Understanding Value-at-Risk Measure: Confidence Level, Time Horizon, Lookback Period

  • Exploring Revaluation Methodology: Full Revaluation DCF Model

  • Generating Historical Scenario and Shock Computation

  • Analyzing Scenario Revaluation & PnL

  • Understanding Absolute & Relative Value-at-Risk and Methodology Limitations

  • Generating Market Value-at-Risk Reports


Complete: Interview Guide Question(s)


 

Here's to your success and the exciting path ahead! happy learning, Professional!

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